Pair #3379

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1596008

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14526

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:08:24Z

Reasoning: If Thorbjornsen wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily top 10. The reverse is not true — top 10 does not guarantee a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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