Pair #3378

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6377

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30845

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:08:24Z

Reasoning: If Jaeger finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse is not true — top 20 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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