Pair #3372

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 28718

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6377

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:08:06Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 finish, and finishing top 5 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue