Pair #3371

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 28718

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13800

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:08:06Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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