Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-CAR
Will Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Carolina Hurricanes
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4539802
YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-CAR
Will Carolina Hurricanes win the NHL Metropolitan Division?
Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: Carolina Hurricanes
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 22617
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:11Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals does not require winning the Metropolitan Division — Carolina could qualify as a wild card. And winning the Metropolitan Division does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup. No implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-98.39%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.4200
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-102.61%
BELOW HURDLE