Pair #3355

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOMEN-26-PAU

Will Tommy Paul win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 101173

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Paul wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR25PAUFIL-PAU

Will Tommy Paul win the Paul vs Fils : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-03-26T03:10:00Z
Volume: 10679

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Paul wins the Paul vs Fils professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:07:48Z

Reasoning: If Tommy Paul wins the Miami Open, he must have won every match including the quarterfinal against Fils. The reverse does not hold — winning the quarterfinal does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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