Pair #3354

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR25TIASIN-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Tiafoe vs Sinner : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 259131

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the Tiafoe vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXFOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1214820

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:07:48Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open is a completely different tournament from the Miami Open quarterfinal. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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