Pair #3353

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 28318

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR25TIASIN-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Tiafoe vs Sinner : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 259131

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Frances Tiafoe wins the Tiafoe vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:07:48Z

Reasoning: If Tiafoe wins the Miami Open, he must have won every match including the quarterfinal against Sinner. The reverse does not hold — winning the quarterfinal does not mean he wins the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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