Pair #3351

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 35820

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-TKIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5887

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:07:48Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate a top-20 finish (he could fade). A top-20 finish does not necessitate leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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