Pair #3345

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WZAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9096

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Will Zalatoris wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-WZAL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Will Zalatoris finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Will Zalatoris
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5575

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Will Zalatoris finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:07:30Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 20 at the Houston Open are independent events. The Houston Open is not a major, so neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -22.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -26.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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