Pair #334

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-CAR

Will Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Carolina Hurricanes
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4539802

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900

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Rules

If the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLEAST-26-CAR

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Carolina Hurricanes
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1295357

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carolina Hurricanes wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:11Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Carolina must win the Eastern Conference Finals first (the Stanley Cup Finals is between the Eastern and Western Conference champions). So winning the Stanley Cup implies winning the Eastern Conference Finals. The reverse does not hold — they could win the ECF and lose the Stanley Cup Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -97.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -102.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:39:27Z

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