Pair #3331

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WCLA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5365

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1100

Rules

If Wyndham Clark wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-WCLA

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7943

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:07:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major and finishing top 20 at the Houston Open are independent events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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