Pair #3321

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-RFOX

Will Ryan Fox lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12730

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Fox is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-RFOX

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ryan Fox finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2827

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Fox finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:06:58Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 final finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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