Pair #3306

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-SIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sungjae Im make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3722

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.7200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:06:40Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and making the cut at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.88% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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