Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-HHAL
Will Harry Hall lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6077
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Harry Hall is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-HHAL
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Harry Hall finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4410
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Harry Hall finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:06:22Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee any particular final finishing position. A player can lead R1 and still miss the cut or finish outside the top 10. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A