Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-ASCO
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Scott make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1539
YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.8300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Scott has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-ASCO
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Scott finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20305
YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Scott finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:05:49Z
Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee finishing top 10 — many players make the cut but finish outside the top 10. And finishing top 10 implies making the cut, but that direction is B→A, and top 10 finishing does logically require having made the cut. However, the question is whether making the cut implies top 10, which it does not.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.5200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A