Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ASCO
Will Adam Scott lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7804
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Scott is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ASCO
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Scott finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30678
YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Scott finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:05:49Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 overall — a player could miss the cut or finish outside top 20 after subsequent rounds. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.8300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A