Pair #3276

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7804

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ASCO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Scott finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30678

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:05:49Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 overall — a player could miss the cut or finish outside top 20 after subsequent rounds. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue