Pair #3275

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7804

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-ASCO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Scott finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20508

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:05:49Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate finishing top 5 — performance over remaining rounds can vary widely. And finishing top 5 does not require having led after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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