Pair #3274

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7804

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-ASCO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Scott finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20305

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:05:49Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate finishing top 10 — a player could collapse over the remaining rounds. And finishing top 10 does not require having led after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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