Pair #3268

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2024

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-ASCO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Scott finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20508

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Scott finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:05:49Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 has no logical connection to finishing top 5 at the Texas Children's Houston Open, which is not a major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -23.59% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -27.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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