Pair #3266

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2196

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-ASCO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Scott make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1539

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:05:49Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 is a completely separate event from making the cut at the Texas Children's Houston Open, which is not a major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -69.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9400
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -74.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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