Pair #325

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-LA

Will Los Angeles Kings win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Los Angeles Kings
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2215691

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-LA

Will the Los Angeles Kings win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Los Angeles Kings
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2097

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Los Angeles Kings wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:46Z

Reasoning: A team can win the Stanley Cup without having the best regular season record, and having the best regular season record does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -20.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 16
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -24.50% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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