Pair #3248

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-KKIT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Kurt Kitayama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Kurt Kitayama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3015

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kurt Kitayama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-KKIT

Will Kurt Kitayama win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Kurt Kitayama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4168686

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kurt Kitayama wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:05:13Z

Reasoning: These are two completely different tournaments (Masters vs. Houston Open). Winning one has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 in the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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