Pair #3231

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-DWIL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Danny Willett finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2903

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-DWIL

Will Danny Willett win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 180569

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:56Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters Tournament and finishing top 10 at the Texas Children's Houston Open are completely separate events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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