Pair #323

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-NYI

Will New York Islanders win the NHL Metropolitan Division?

Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: New York Islanders
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 13517

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the New York Islanders win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-NYI

Will the New York Islanders win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: New York Islanders
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 358

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If New York Islanders wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:46Z

Reasoning: The President's Trophy goes to the team with the best overall NHL record, which need not be the Metropolitan Division winner (another team in the division could have a worse record but still win the division in a tiebreaker scenario is unlikely, but more directly: the best overall record team could be from any division). Winning the Metropolitan Division does not imply the best overall record. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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