Pair #3228

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-RGER

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3379

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-RGER

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2414

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:41Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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