Pair #3225

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17766

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Gerard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-RGER

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2414

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:41Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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