Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-RGER
Will Ryan Gerard lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17766
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryan Gerard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-RGER
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2414
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:41Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A