Pair #3222

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 300294

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-RGER

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2414

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:41Z

Reasoning: Winning the Houston Open means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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