Pair #322

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-NYI

Will New York Islanders win the NHL Metropolitan Division?

Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: New York Islanders
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 13517

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the New York Islanders win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-NYI

Will the New York Islanders be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: New York Islanders
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 86171

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the New York Islanders are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:46Z

Reasoning: Winning the Metropolitan Division guarantees a playoff spot (division winners always qualify). However, making the playoffs does not require winning the division — teams can qualify as wild cards. So Metropolitan Division win → Playoff Qualifier, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:37:49Z

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