Pair #3218

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-RGER

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2414

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1660993

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Gerard wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:41Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 at the Houston Open are entirely separate tournaments with no logical dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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