Pair #3214

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MGRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1248

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MGRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3248

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:25Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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