Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MGRE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1248
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MGRE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3248
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:25Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A