Pair #3208

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MGRE

Will Max Greyserman win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 402246

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Greyserman wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MGRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3248

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:25Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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