Pair #3206

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MGRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1965

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MGRE

Will Max Greyserman win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 957134

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:25Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters Tournament and finishing top 20 in the Texas Children's Houston Open are completely independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9910
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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