Pair #3204

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MGRE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3248

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MGRE

Will Max Greyserman win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Max Greyserman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 957134

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Greyserman wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:08Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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