Pair #3202

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8388

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22798

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:08Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish necessarily means a top 20 finish (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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