Pair #3200

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8388

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7730

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:08Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish necessarily means a top 10 finish (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish could be positions 6-10, which is not top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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