Pair #3198

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 46041

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7730

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:08Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 final finish (could fall back), and finishing top 10 overall does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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