Pair #3196

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 779797

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7730

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:08Z

Reasoning: Winning the Houston Open means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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