Pair #3195

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8388

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:04:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major and finishing top 5 at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -31.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -35.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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