Pair #3189

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 704

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-RHOJ

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Rasmus Hojgaard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4928

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:51Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 and finishing top 20 in the Houston Open are independent events. The Houston Open is not a major, so neither event implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -23.63% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -27.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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