Pair #3187

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-APOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aldrich Potgieter finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3052

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-APOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aldrich Potgieter finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36428

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:51Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing 6th-20th is top 20 but not top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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