Pair #3181

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-ARAI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 746

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ARAI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3395

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:33Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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