Pair #3180

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ARAI

Will Aaron Rai lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32999

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ARAI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3395

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:33Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish, and finishing top 20 does not require having led after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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