Pair #318

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-NYI

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: New York Islanders
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 91357

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New York Islanders wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-NYI

Will the New York Islanders be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: New York Islanders
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 86171

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the New York Islanders are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:27Z

Reasoning: Winning the Eastern Conference Finals requires having qualified for the playoffs. So ECF win implies playoff qualifier. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:32:00Z

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