Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ARAI
Will Aaron Rai lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32999
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Aaron Rai is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-ARAI
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 746
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:33Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 finish, and finishing top 5 does not require having led after Round 1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A