Pair #3175

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ARAI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3395

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-ARAI

Will Aaron Rai win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1958921

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:33Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 20 at the Houston Open are separate tournaments with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7810
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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