Pair #3171

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SSTE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Stevens finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9462

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Stevens finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SSTE

Will Sam Stevens win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sam Stevens
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1210445

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Stevens wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:33Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 5 at the Houston Open are entirely separate tournaments with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5810
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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