Pair #3169

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JDAY

Will Jason Day lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5274

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8938

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.9500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:17Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish — a player can fall back significantly. Finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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