Pair #3168

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 281

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JDAY

Will Jason Day lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5274

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:17Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player can collapse in Round 2. Making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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