Pair #3167

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-JDAY

Will Jason Day win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1254077

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8938

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.9500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:17Z

Reasoning: If Jason Day wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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